Michael Miller and Chris Noble are co-founders of Consiglieri, a marketing consultancy that offers counsel for executives navigating modern marketing challenges. Currently, 94% of advertisers are concerned about tariffs, and 45% plan to reduce their budgets. However, Miller and Noble cite decades of research indicating that companies that maintain marketing efforts during recessions experience 275% higher sales growth. That gap between panic and strategy? That’s the conversation. Miller handles creative strategy after modernizing T-Mobile’s marketing operations. Noble runs operations after years at shops like SapientRazorfish. They recently broke down why brands like Apple, Dyson, and IKEA continue to win when others pull back.
When Budgets Tighten, The Wrong Things Get Cut
Marketing budgets drop about 11% in recessions. Traditional channels see 20-30% cuts. Most agencies tell clients to retreat and wait it out.
Noble sees the problem. “Budget cuts aren’t just a peanut butter spread across the top,” he says. “Marketers have to decide what actually makes sense.” The catch? The stuff that’s working often gets cut anyway.
The balance matters. “How do you keep a strategy pointed 12, 18, 24 months out while delivering what you need now as everybody’s living quarter to quarter?” Noble asks.
You Can’t Fake Caring
Miller gets specific. “It’s hard for a brand that raised prices six times and did multiple rounds of layoffs to then pretend they’re relating to their customer,” he says. “That’s difficult.”
Agencies can help with marketing strategy, but brands must examine whether their behavior aligns with what they’re saying. “Are we relating to our consumer not just with our marketing, but with the way we behave?” Miller asks.
Consumers notice. When people struggle with grocery costs and gas prices, hopping on social trends rings hollow.
The Coachella Tent Problem
The days of showing up at an event without a genuine connection are done. “You can’t just chase whatever’s happening in social,” Miller says. “That feels shallow when people are struggling to get by.”
Noble sees a shift. “In the past, that meant charities we give to, or 1% giveback,” he notes. “Those are still important. But now the other things—price increases, layoffs—are impacting brand value in ways they haven’t had to pay attention to before.”
Turning Features Into Feelings
The brands thriving in downturns understand something about product marketing.
“It can’t just be dry product marketing,” Miller explains. “The brands doing this well connect with product practicality, but they demonstrate deep understanding of product benefit to consumers.”
Noble references their Google client: “They call it turning features into feelings. I love that framing.” It’s about making emotional connections to how product elements actually help people’s lives. “You’ve gotta have some tangible reason to believe that points back to what’s in the product that makes that benefit real.”
Apple translates camera tweaks into life improvements. Dyson turns motor speeds into cleaner floors. IKEA offers design solutions as everyday essentials.
What Indies Can Do Now
Noble sees opportunity for independent agencies while big shops tell CMOs to wait it out. “In the smaller agency space, it’s about understanding what niche you’re really good at,” he says. “Come in and hone into that corner.”
Clear value propositions around specific capabilities—TikTok content, influencer connection, whatever the specialty—can demonstrate real ROI. “Having something you’re really good at and showing the value is where smaller agencies stand out,” Noble explains.
Miller emphasizes constant iteration. “It’s that balance of planning for the long term while the downward pressure is on what we’re doing this quarter,” he says.
Indies also have flexibility that larger shops don’t. Miller talks about “bringing generosity to clients”—adding solutions without the need for massive bureaucracy. Something that takes a few hours doesn’t need a 50-grand scope.
The goodwill built over time creates client trust. “We know our clients will make it good for us down the road,” Noble says.
Stop Buying This
Asked what CMOs should stop buying, Noble is direct. “The ‘we’ll put a tent up at Coachella and the kids will think we’re cool,'” he says. “If you’re not adding real value, they’re taking your free backpack and that’s it.”
Miller adds chasing social trends. “Trying to get social currency by chasing whatever fleeting thing—that feels inauthentic when people are struggling.”
The Next Shift
Noble identifies the gap most CMOs haven’t figured out yet. “CMOs still think about brand marketing and product marketing as separate,” he says. “There’s a middle ground where those two have to connect.”
Without that connection, brands end up doing bottom-funnel creative that hits quarterly numbers but erodes the brand over time. “You’re offering commodity value, not actual value,” Noble warns.
Miller focuses on the long game. “Your ability to interact with consumers in rough times goes a long way with how they feel about your brand,” he says. “That loyalty lasts.”
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